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Bonner SC vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonner SC
Bonner SC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
5/21/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bonner SC56%
×Draw21%
Freialdenhoven23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC
2.04
Freialdenhoven
1.23

Bonner SC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bonner SC
2.40
Freialdenhoven
1.75

allows per match

Bonner SC
0.71
Freialdenhoven
1.67

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par
Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Freialdenhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw
77%
Bonner SC or Freialdenhoven
79%
Draw or Freialdenhoven
44%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+
33%
Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals
87%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
60%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
33%
Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
71%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
35%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)
71%
Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bonner SC scores more
56%
level
21%
Freialdenhoven scores more
23%

Bonner SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonner SC vs Freialdenhoven

Bonner SC beat Freialdenhoven 5-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.