Freialdenhoven 0–1 Bergisch Gladbach

Freialdenhoven

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bergisch Gladbach

3/13/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Freialdenhoven28%

×Draw24%

Bergisch Gladbach48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchBergisch Gladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.75

Freialdenhoven

1.29

Bergisch Gladbach

1.75

Bergisch Gladbach creates 36% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 76 away

1.45

creates per match

1.92

1.57

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

Bergisch Gladbach

1.92

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

Bergisch Gladbach

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

52%

Freialdenhoven or Bergisch Gladbach

76%

Draw or Bergisch Gladbach

72%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

12%

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

72%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

37%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

14%

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

83%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

52%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

37%

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

28%

level

24%

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

48%

Bergisch Gladbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Freialdenhoven 0–1 Bergisch Gladbach

Bergisch Gladbach beat Freialdenhoven 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Ederener Straße in Aldenhoven.

Freialdenhoven vs Bergisch Gladbach — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Freialdenhoven 0–1 Bergisch Gladbach