Bergisch Gladbach 1–2 Freialdenhoven

Bergisch Gladbach

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Freialdenhoven

8/28/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach52%

×Draw21%

Freialdenhoven27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergisch GladbachExpected goals in this matchFreialdenhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.46

Bergisch Gladbach

2.09

Freialdenhoven

1.46

Bergisch Gladbach creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

2.52

creates per match

1.75

1.16

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach

2.52

Freialdenhoven

1.75

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach

1.16

Freialdenhoven

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Freialdenhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw

73%

Bergisch Gladbach or Freialdenhoven

79%

Draw or Freialdenhoven

48%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

31%

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

88%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

62%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

34%

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

77%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

43%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

66%

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.09

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

52%

level

21%

Freialdenhoven scores more

27%

Bergisch Gladbach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergisch Gladbach vs Freialdenhoven

Freialdenhoven beat Bergisch Gladbach 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.

Bergisch Gladbach vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bergisch Gladbach vs Freialdenhoven