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Freeport vs Black Man Warrior — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
2/20/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 19Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Freeport38%
×Draw26%
Black Man Warrior36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.38
Black Man Warrior
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 27 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Black Man Warrior
0.85

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Black Man Warrior
1.26

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Black Man Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
64%
Freeport or Black Man Warrior
74%
Draw or Black Man Warrior
62%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
18%
Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
75%
Freeport 2+ goals
40%
Freeport 3+ goals
16%
Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
74%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
38%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
52%
Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Freeport scores more
38%
level
26%
Black Man Warrior scores more
36%

Freeport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Freeport 1–1 Black Man Warrior

Freeport and Black Man Warrior drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on February 20, 2025.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.