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Black Man Warrior vs Freeport — LFA First Division 2020

Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Freeport
Freeport
4/26/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Black Man Warrior39%
×Draw26%
Freeport35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Man Warrior
1.35
Freeport
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 75 away

creates per match

Black Man Warrior
1.08
Freeport
1.31

allows per match

Black Man Warrior
1.23
Freeport
1.61

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par
Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

Freeport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw
65%
Black Man Warrior or Freeport
74%
Draw or Freeport
61%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
18%
Freeport wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
74%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
39%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
15%
Freeport 1+ goals
72%
Freeport 2+ goals
36%
Freeport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
53%
Freeport (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Freeport attack 1.31 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more
39%
level
26%
Freeport scores more
35%

Black Man Warrior at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Black Man Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Man Warrior vs Freeport

Black Man Warrior and Freeport drew 0-0 in LFA First Division on April 26, 2026.