Free State Stars vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Free State Stars23%
Mamelodi Sundowns47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mamelodi Sundowns creates 59% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 122 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Free State Stars ↓
Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Free State Stars at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches
Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Free State Stars attack 0.97 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.80
Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.52 + Free State Stars defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Mamelodi Sundowns at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Cape Town CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Free State Stars host Mamelodi Sundowns on Sunday, 16 April 2017 at 13:00. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Free State Stars vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns beat Free State Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 16, 2017.
Goals: M. Madisha (45+3').
The match was played at James Motlatsi Stadium (Orkney).