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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Free State Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Free State Stars
Free State Stars
11/7/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8Loftus Versfeld Stadium (Pretoria (Tshwane))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns65%
×Draw22%
Free State Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.83
Free State Stars
0.67

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 173% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Free State Stars
0.80

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Free State Stars
1.73

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Free State Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Free State Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
87%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Free State Stars
78%
Draw or Free State Stars
35%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
39%
Free State Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
84%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
54%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
28%
Free State Stars 1+ goals
49%
Free State Stars 2+ goals
15%
Free State Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
83%
Free State Stars (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Free State Stars away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Free State Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Free State Stars attack 0.80 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
65%
level
22%
Free State Stars scores more
13%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Mamelodi Sundowns 3–1 Free State Stars

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Free State Stars 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 7, 2018.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium (Pretoria (Tshwane)).