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Fredrikstad vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Preview
16:00
Molde
Molde
12/13/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 30Fredrikstad Stadion
Big match
41%
Fredrikstad
model favours
41%25%34%

Molde score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Fredrikstad41%
×Draw25%
Molde34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.50
Molde
1.36

Fredrikstad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Molde
1.39

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Molde
1.40

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Molde-0.02on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
66%
Fredrikstad or Molde
75%
Draw or Molde
59%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
20%
Molde wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
78%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
44%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
19%
Molde 1+ goals
74%
Molde 2+ goals
39%
Molde 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
54%
Molde (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Molde away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Molde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Molde attack 1.39 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
41%
level
25%
Molde scores more
34%

Fredrikstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Molde have scored in 11 games running
  • Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches
  • Both teams score in 79% of Molde’s matches
  • 71% of Molde’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fredrikstad
Balanced
Molde
Possession-dominant
45%Possession56%
75%Pass accuracy83%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap14.6
1.36xG1.67
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FredrikstadMolde

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
1
Molde
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 60%
2–14–20–01–60–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fredrikstad
LLLDD
Molde
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fredrikstad face Molde (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Fredrikstad hosting Molde. Match starts December 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fredrikstad host Molde at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.