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Fredrikstad vs Bryne — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bryne
Bryne
J. Nunez 25' (pen)
S. Bojadzic 88'
9/20/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 22Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fredrikstad50%
×Draw24%
Bryne25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.68
Bryne
1.12

Fredrikstad creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Bryne
0.91

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Bryne
1.76

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Bryne+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Bryne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
75%
Fredrikstad or Bryne
76%
Draw or Bryne
50%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
27%
Bryne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
81%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
50%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
24%
Bryne 1+ goals
67%
Bryne 2+ goals
31%
Bryne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
66%
Bryne (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Bryne away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Bryne defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bryne attack 0.91 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
50%
level
24%
Bryne scores more
25%

Fredrikstad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. WoledziFredrikstadFredrikstad · D
7.3

Match Events

14'
Jacob Haahr
25'
J. NunezPenalty
41'
Patrick Wik
46'
S. Bojadzic← M. Grodem
46'
D. Moreira← A. Scriven
46'
R. Thellufsen← P. A. Wik
58'
Andreas Skovgaard
65'
S. Sorlokk← J. Nunez
74'
S. Laghzaoui← H. Skogvold
74'
R. R. Shein← O. Ohlenschlaeger
81'
C. Landu-Landu← N. Strunck
81'
D. Gaye← J. Gregersen
88'
S. Bojadzic
90'
J. Bjartalid← S. Owusu
90'
L. Begby← S. Molde

Possession

51%Fredrikstad

Shots

10Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

51%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadBryne
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots10
1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.96
4Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target3
3Off Target5
3Blocked2
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
455Total Passes433
377Accurate Passes342
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
6Offsides0

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Bryne

Fredrikstad and Bryne drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Nunez (25' pen), S. Bojadzic (88').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.