Bryne 4–3 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Bryne

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Fredrikstad

N. Strunck 74'

S. Bojadzic 73'

B. Skaret 13' (OG)

D. Moreira 1'

B. Faraas 88'

S. Sorlokk 33'

P. Metcalfe 26'

5/24/2025

Eliteserien · Round 8Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bryne48%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BryneExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.22

Bryne

1.66

Fredrikstad

1.22

Bryne creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 34 away

1.66

creates per match

1.11

1.33

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Bryne

1.66

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Bryne

1.33

Fredrikstad

1.66

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Bryne-0.28scores less

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bryne or draw

72%

Bryne or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

52%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+

25%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals

81%

Bryne 2+ goals

49%

Bryne 3+ goals

23%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

70%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

34%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)

63%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.66 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.66

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Bryne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bryne scores more

48%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

28%

Bryne at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Moreira

Bryne · F

8.7

Match Events

1'

D. Moreira↳ A. Scriven

13'

B. SkaretOwn goal

25'

Lars Erik Sødal

26'

P. Metcalfe↳ E. Holten

33'

S. Sorlokk↳ E. Holten

64'

H. Skogvold← E. Holten

73'

S. Bojadzic↳ D. Moreira

74'

N. Strunck

77'

R. R. Shein← L. Owusu

77'

J. Hanstad← B. Skaret

85'

S. Rafn← D. Eid

85'

B. Faraas← P. Metcalfe

88'

B. Faraas↳ S. Sorlokk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BryneFredrikstad

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots11

2.39Expected Goals (xG)1.75

7Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots11

8On Target3

6Off Target6

5Blocked2

14Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

423Total Passes338

315Accurate Passes203

74%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1