Fredrikstad 3–1 Bryne: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bryne

K. Sellin 82'

T. Nilsen 53', 29'

V. Myhre 69'

6/23/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 11Nye Fredrikstad Stadion (Fredrikstad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fredrikstad70%

×Draw17%

Bryne13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchBryne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.97

Fredrikstad

2.50

Bryne

0.97

Fredrikstad creates 158% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

2.89

creates per match

1.00

0.95

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Fredrikstad

2.89

Bryne

1.00

allows per match

Fredrikstad

0.95

Bryne

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Bryne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Bryne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

87%

Fredrikstad or Bryne

83%

Draw or Bryne

30%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

48%

Bryne wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

92%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

71%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

45%

Bryne 1+ goals

62%

Bryne 2+ goals

25%

Bryne 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

85%

Bryne (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Bryne away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 2.89 + Bryne defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bryne attack 1.00 + Fredrikstad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

70%

level

17%

Bryne scores more

13%

Fredrikstad at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

T. Nilsen

53'

T. Nilsen

61'

L. Reuterswärd← T. Drage

61'

V. Myhre← T. Aasheim

69'

V. Myhre

70'

Maikel Nieves← N. Solberg

70'

P. Martinsen← A. Jacobsen

78'

K. Sellin← T. Nilsen

82'

K. Sellin

83'

P. Fjelde← E. Rosland

Fredrikstad

Bryne

99

Spiridono

21

Wemberg

5

Baldvinss

6

▼

Jacobsen

17

Ueland

11

Langeland

8

▼

Rosland

30

▼

16

23

10

1

4

26

18

28

35

▼

Drage

14

▼

7

21

23

9

⚽2

▼

Nilsen

Manager: B. Johansen

61'▲L. Reuterswärd←▼T. Drage

70'▲Maikel Nieves←▼N. Solberg

78'▲K. Sellin←▼T. Nilsen

Fredrikstad substitutes

10Reuterswärd11Nieves19Sellin13Karstensen20Åsheim22Getz24Koko

Manager: J. Halvorsen

61'▲V. Myhre←▼T. Aasheim

70'▲P. Martinsen←▼A. Jacobsen

83'▲P. Fjelde←▼E. Rosland

Bryne substitutes

9Myhre12Martinsen4Fjelde25Hoppestad28Øfsteng