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Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Preview
17:00
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
9/4/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 20Fredrikstad Stadion
Big match
42%
Bodo/Glimt
model favours
34%24%42%

Bodo/Glimt are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Fredrikstad34%
×Draw24%
Bodo/Glimt42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.47
Bodo/Glimt
1.67

Bodo/Glimt creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Bodo/Glimt
2.01

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Bodo/Glimt
1.33

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Bodo/Glimt+0.02on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
58%
Fredrikstad or Bodo/Glimt
76%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
66%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
16%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
77%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
43%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
18%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
81%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
50%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
44%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.01 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
34%
level
24%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
42%

Bodo/Glimt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bodo/Glimt have won 5 in a row
  • Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches
  • Bodo/Glimt score first in 74% of matches
  • Bodo/Glimt have scored in 9 games running
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fredrikstad
Balanced
Bodo/Glimt
Possession-dominant
45%Possession64%
75%Pass accuracy88%
11.2Shots16.9
1.36xGBiggest gap2.35
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FredrikstadBodo/Glimt

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 17%
0–10–50–12–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fredrikstad
LLLDD
Bodo/Glimt
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt — Match Preview

Fredrikstad face Bodo/Glimt on September 4, 2026 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fredrikstad host Bodo/Glimt at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.