Fredrikstad 0–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bodo/Glimt

A. Mikkelsen 70'

F. Bjørkan 47'

4/1/2024

Eliteserien · Round 1Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Fredrikstad26%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.84

Fredrikstad

1.25

Bodo/Glimt

1.84

Bodo/Glimt creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

1.68

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Bodo/Glimt

2.00

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.68

Bodo/Glimt

1.16

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.47scores less

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

49%

Fredrikstad or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

74%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

11%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

71%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

36%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

13%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

84%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

55%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

34%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 7 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.33 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.00 + Fredrikstad defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

26%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

51%

Bodo/Glimt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Bjørkan

Bodo/Glimt · D

8.2

Match Events

27'

Philip Sandvik Aukland

37'

Stian Stray Molde

38'

Stian Stray MoldeCard reviewed

46'

S. Rafn← M. Bjørlo

46'

H. Evjen← U. Saltnes

47'

F. Bjørkan↳ N. Žugelj

66'

J. Bjartalíð← S. Sørløkk

66'

B. Hendriksson← O. Aga

70'

A. Mikkelsen↳ N. Žugelj

71'

Jostein Gundersen

83'

K. Høgh← A. Mikkelsen

84'

H. Johansen← M. Traoré

85'

B. Skaret← S. Kvile

90+2'

S. Sørli← N. Žugelj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadBodo/Glimt

Overview

31%Possession69%

7Total Shots13

0.89Expected Goals (xG)2.29

1Corners5

10Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots13

1On Target5

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

6Inside Box10

1Outside Box3

Passing

31%Possession69%

281Total Passes660

210Accurate Passes590

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1