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Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
Preview
17:15
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
7/17/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 14Aspmyra Stadion
Big match
72%
Bodo/Glimt
model favours
72%17%11%

Bodo/Glimt are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bodo/Glimt72%
×Draw17%
Fredrikstad11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodo/Glimt
2.42
Fredrikstad
0.84

Bodo/Glimt creates 188% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt
3.26
Fredrikstad
0.95

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt
0.74
Fredrikstad
1.57

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par
Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw
89%
Bodo/Glimt or Fredrikstad
83%
Draw or Fredrikstad
28%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
49%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
91%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
69%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
43%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
57%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
21%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
86%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 3.26 + Fredrikstad defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fredrikstad attack 0.95 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more
72%
level
17%
Fredrikstad scores more
11%

Bodo/Glimt at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bodo/Glimt have won 3 in a row
  • Fredrikstad score first in only 27% of matches
  • 78% of Bodo/Glimt’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bodo/Glimt score first in 72% of matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of Fredrikstad’s matches
  • 67% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Bodo/Glimt
Possession-dominant
Fredrikstad
Possession-dominant
63%Possession54%
88%Pass accuracy83%
16.5Shots14.9
2.41xGBiggest gap1.52
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bodo/GlimtFredrikstad

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 20%
5–01–02–22–04–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bodo/Glimt
WWWDW
Fredrikstad
LLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bodo/Glimt host Fredrikstad

July 17, 2026: Bodo/Glimt take on Fredrikstad in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bodo/Glimt host Fredrikstad at Aspmyra Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.