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Fredrikstad II vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Express
Express
8/13/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 16Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fredrikstad II65%
×Draw18%
Express18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad II
2.56
Express
1.28

Fredrikstad II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad II
2.04
Express
1.38

allows per match

Fredrikstad II
1.19
Express
3.08

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw
82%
Fredrikstad II or Express
82%
Draw or Express
35%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
43%
Express wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
92%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
72%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
46%
Express 1+ goals
72%
Express 2+ goals
37%
Express 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
79%
Express (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Express away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 2.04 + Express defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.56

Express attack 1.38 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more
65%
level
18%
Express scores more
18%

Fredrikstad II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Fredrikstad II 2–1 Express

Fredrikstad II beat Express 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.