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Express vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Express
Express
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
5/23/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 7Fevik Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Express33%
×Draw21%
Fredrikstad II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.75
Fredrikstad II
2.06

Fredrikstad II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Express
1.15
Fredrikstad II
2.12

allows per match

Express
2.00
Fredrikstad II
2.35

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Express or draw
55%
Express or Fredrikstad II
79%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
67%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
17%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
83%
Express 2+ goals
52%
Express 3+ goals
25%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
87%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
61%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
42%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.15 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Express defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Express scores more
33%
level
21%
Fredrikstad II scores more
45%

Fredrikstad II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Express 0–0 Fredrikstad II

Express and Fredrikstad II drew 0-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 23, 2022.

The match was played at Fevik Stadion in Fevik.