Frechen 2–0 Fortuna Köln II: Result & Stats

Frechen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Köln II

5/4/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 24Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Frechen50%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Köln II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrechenExpected goals in this matchFortuna Köln II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.55

Frechen

2.11

Fortuna Köln II

1.55

Frechen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

2.34

creates per match

1.54

1.56

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Frechen

2.34

Fortuna Köln II

1.54

allows per match

Frechen

1.56

Fortuna Köln II

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

Fortuna Köln II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Frechen or draw

72%

Frechen or Fortuna Köln II

79%

Draw or Fortuna Köln II

50%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+

30%

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals

88%

Frechen 2+ goals

62%

Frechen 3+ goals

35%

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals

46%

Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)

64%

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Frechen scores more

50%

level

21%

Fortuna Köln II scores more

28%

Frechen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff