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Fortuna Köln II vs Frechen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Frechen
Frechen
3/22/2026Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 20Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Fortuna Köln II41%
×Draw23%
Frechen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln II
1.73
Frechen
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 81 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.96
Frechen
1.68

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.58
Frechen
1.49

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par
Frechen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Frechen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw
63%
Fortuna Köln II or Frechen
77%
Draw or Frechen
59%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
21%
Frechen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
25%
Frechen 1+ goals
80%
Frechen 2+ goals
48%
Frechen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
53%
Frechen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Frechen away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Frechen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

Frechen attack 1.68 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more
41%
level
23%
Frechen scores more
37%

Fortuna Köln II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Fortuna Köln II 2–1 Frechen

Fortuna Köln II beat Frechen 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark in Köln.