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Frechen vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
CANC
13:15
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
4/7/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 24Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Frechen52%
×Draw21%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.17
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.53

Frechen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
73%
Frechen or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
79%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
48%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
31%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
89%
Frechen 2+ goals
64%
Frechen 3+ goals
36%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
78%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
45%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
66%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Frechen scores more
52%
level
21%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
27%

Frechen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Frechen host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

April 7, 2024: Frechen take on BCV Glesch / Paffendorf in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Frechen host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.