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BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Frechen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Frechen
Frechen
10/8/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 9Kunstrasenplatz Glesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf31%
×Draw23%
Frechen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.44
Frechen
1.81

Frechen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 81 away

creates per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.40
Frechen
1.68

allows per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.95
Frechen
1.49

finishing

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par
Frechen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓

Frechen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or draw
54%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or Frechen
77%
Draw or Frechen
69%

Winning margin

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
14%
Frechen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
76%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
42%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
18%
Frechen 1+ goals
84%
Frechen 2+ goals
54%
Frechen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
40%
Frechen (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

Frechen away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Frechen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Frechen attack 1.68 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
31%
level
23%
Frechen scores more
46%

Frechen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Frechen

Frechen beat BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 4-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Glesch in Bergheim.