Fratria 1–3 Yantra 2019: Result & Stats

Fratria

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Yantra 2019

I. Ibryam 77'

E. Kolev 83'

D. Angelov 45', 8'

3/29/2025

Second League · Round 28Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fratria49%

×Draw26%

Yantra 201926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FratriaExpected goals in this matchYantra 2019

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Fratria

1.54

Yantra 2019

1.04

Fratria creates 48% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 100 away

1.86

creates per match

0.95

1.14

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Fratria

1.86

Yantra 2019

0.95

allows per match

Fratria

1.14

Yantra 2019

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Yantra 2019 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fratria or draw

74%

Fratria or Yantra 2019

74%

Draw or Yantra 2019

51%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+

25%

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals

79%

Fratria 2+ goals

45%

Fratria 3+ goals

20%

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

65%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

28%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)

66%

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 1.86 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Fratria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fratria scores more

49%

level

26%

Yantra 2019 scores more

26%

Fratria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

31'

31'

31'

45+1'

45'

57'

59'

M. Marinov← S. Dobrev

66'

77'

80'

80'

83'

85'

D. Gadzhev← A. Angelov

89'

R. Zakaryan← D. Kadir

90+1'

E. Evgeniev Kolev

Fratria

Yantra

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: V. Petrov

59'▲M. Marinov←▼S. Dobrev

89'▲R. Zakaryan←▼D. Kadir

Fratria substitutes

MarinovZakaryanPetrovIvanovTotevPetkovAndonov

Manager: T. Kiselichkov

66'▲E. Kolev←▼D. Angelov

80'▲N. Botev←▼T. Radev

85'▲D. Gadzhev←▼A. Angelov

Yantra 2019 substitutes

KolevBotevGadzhevGruevEnchevAngelovDyulgerovTisovskiVasilev