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Fratria vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
3 – 0
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
9/16/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 6Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria83%
×Draw11%
Dunav ot Ruse II6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
3.04
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.68

Fratria creates 347% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
94%
Fratria or Dunav ot Ruse II
89%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
17%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
65%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
95%
Fratria 2+ goals
80%
Fratria 3+ goals
57%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
49%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
15%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
94%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 3.04

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Fratria scores more
83%
level
11%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
6%

Fratria at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Fratria 3–0 Dunav ot Ruse II

Fratria beat Dunav ot Ruse II 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.