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Dunav ot Ruse II vs Fratria — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
FT
0 – 5
Fratria
Fratria
3/31/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 21Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II19%
×Draw21%
Fratria60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.05
Fratria
2.04

Fratria creates 94% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.19
Fratria
2.23

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.85
Fratria
0.92

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw
40%
Dunav ot Ruse II or Fratria
79%
Draw or Fratria
81%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
7%
Fratria wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
65%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
28%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
9%
Fratria 1+ goals
87%
Fratria 2+ goals
60%
Fratria 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
24%
Fratria (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Fratria attack 2.23 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
19%
level
21%
Fratria scores more
60%

Fratria at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dunav ot Ruse II 0–5 Fratria

Fratria beat Dunav ot Ruse II 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dunav in Rousse.