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Fratria vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
3/9/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria62%
×Draw20%
Chernolomets 191918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.23
Chernolomets 1919
1.13

Fratria creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 91 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
82%
Fratria or Chernolomets 1919
80%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
38%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
39%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
89%
Fratria 2+ goals
65%
Fratria 3+ goals
38%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
68%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
31%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
77%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.23

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fratria scores more
62%
level
20%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
18%

Fratria at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fratria 3 – 1 Chernolomets 1919

Fratria beat Chernolomets 1919 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kavarna.