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Chernolomets 1919 vs Fratria — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fratria
Fratria
8/26/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 3Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chernolomets 191946%
×Draw22%
Fratria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernolomets 1919
1.91
Fratria
1.54

Chernolomets 1919 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919
2.90
Fratria
2.23

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919
0.85
Fratria
0.92

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw
69%
Chernolomets 1919 or Fratria
78%
Draw or Fratria
54%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
26%
Fratria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
85%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
57%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
30%
Fratria 1+ goals
79%
Fratria 2+ goals
45%
Fratria 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
60%
Fratria (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fratria attack 2.23 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more
46%
level
22%
Fratria scores more
31%

Chernolomets 1919 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Chernolomets 1919 0–2 Fratria

Fratria beat Chernolomets 1919 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stamo Kostov in Popovo.