Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fratria vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cherno more II
Cherno more II
4/20/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria57%
×Draw21%
Cherno more II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.13
Cherno more II
1.25

Fratria creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 58 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Cherno more II
1.88

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Cherno more II
1.03

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Cherno more II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
78%
Fratria or Cherno more II
79%
Draw or Cherno more II
43%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
35%
Cherno more II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
88%
Fratria 2+ goals
63%
Fratria 3+ goals
35%
Cherno more II 1+ goals
71%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
36%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
72%
Cherno more II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fratria scores more
57%
level
21%
Cherno more II scores more
22%

Fratria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fratria vs Cherno more II

Fratria and Cherno more II drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kavarna.