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Cherno more II vs Fratria — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Fratria
Fratria
11/8/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 9Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cherno more II32%
×Draw24%
Fratria44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
1.39
Fratria
1.68

Fratria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Fratria
2.23

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Fratria
0.92

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
56%
Cherno more II or Fratria
76%
Draw or Fratria
68%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
14%
Fratria wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
75%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
40%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
16%
Fratria 1+ goals
81%
Fratria 2+ goals
50%
Fratria 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
42%
Fratria (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fratria attack 2.23 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cherno more II scores more
32%
level
24%
Fratria scores more
44%

Fratria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno more II vs Fratria

Cherno more II beat Fratria 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Cherno More Sports Complex in Varna.