Fratria 2–1 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Fratria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Botev Plovdiv II

4/19/2025

Second League · Round 32Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fratria62%

×Draw22%

Botev Plovdiv II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FratriaExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.83

Fratria

1.90

Botev Plovdiv II

0.83

Fratria creates 129% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 54 away

1.86

creates per match

0.52

1.14

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Fratria

1.86

Botev Plovdiv II

0.52

allows per match

Fratria

1.14

Botev Plovdiv II

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fratria or draw

84%

Fratria or Botev Plovdiv II

78%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

38%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+

37%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals

85%

Fratria 2+ goals

56%

Fratria 3+ goals

29%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

56%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

20%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)

80%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 1.86 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Fratria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fratria scores more

62%

level

22%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

16%

Fratria at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff