Botev Plovdiv II 2–2 Fratria: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Fratria

E. Piloyan 42', 36'

A. Lisak 84'

D. Angelov 56'

10/20/2024

Second League · Round 13Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II35%

×Draw28%

Fratria37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchFratria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.19

Botev Plovdiv II

1.16

Fratria

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 35 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Fratria

1.17

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Fratria

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Fratria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

63%

Botev Plovdiv II or Fratria

72%

Draw or Fratria

65%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

15%

Fratria wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

69%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

32%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

11%

Fratria 1+ goals

70%

Fratria 2+ goals

33%

Fratria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

49%

Fratria (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Fratria away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Fratria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fratria attack 1.17 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

35%

level

28%

Fratria scores more

37%

Fratria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

C. Cassi

36'

42'

45'

45'

46'

G. Lazarov← M. Gashchuk

46'

X. Druiventak← D. Lukanov

56'

D. Angelov

60'

D. Dikliev← K. Pavlov

60'

D. Tonev← M. Sitev

66'

I. Kapitanov

67'

G. Kushtinarov← J. van Heertum

72'

D. Yordanov← E. Piloyan

72'

E. Naydenov← C. Kassi

77'

D. Tonev

83'

A. Lisak← I. Kapitanov

83'

84'

86'

90+1'

Botev

Fratria

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Beršnjak

60'▲D. Dikliev←▼K. Pavlov

60'▲D. Tonev←▼M. Sitev

67'▲G. Kushtinarov←▼J. van Heertum

72'▲D. Yordanov←▼E. Piloyan

72'▲E. Naydenov←▼C. Kassi

Botev Plovdiv II substitutes

DiklievTonevKushtinarovYordanovNaydenovSimeonovIVidolovII

Manager: E. Lukanov

46'▲G. Lazarov←▼M. Gashchuk

46'▲X. Druiventak←▼D. Lukanov

83'▲A. Lisak←▼I. Kapitanov

83'▲D. Kadir←▼V. Bîtlan

Fratria substitutes

LazarovDruiventakLisakKadirPopovPetkovAndoni

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 2–2 Fratria

Botev Plovdiv II and Fratria drew 2-2 in Second League on October 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Piloyan (36', 42'), D. Angelov (56'), A. Lisak (84').

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv II vs Fratria — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 2–2 Fratria