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Fratria vs Benkovski Isperih — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
4 – 0
Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
11/26/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 12Stadion Staro Oryahovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria69%
×Draw17%
Benkovski Isperih14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.52
Benkovski Isperih
1.06

Fratria creates 138% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Benkovski Isperih
1.51

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Benkovski Isperih
1.80

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Benkovski Isperih →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
86%
Fratria or Benkovski Isperih
83%
Draw or Benkovski Isperih
31%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
47%
Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
92%
Fratria 2+ goals
71%
Fratria 3+ goals
45%
Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
65%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
29%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
83%
Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Benkovski Isperih away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.52

Benkovski Isperih attack 1.51 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Fratria scores more
69%
level
17%
Benkovski Isperih scores more
14%

Fratria at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fratria vs Benkovski Isperih

Fratria beat Benkovski Isperih 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Staro Oryahovo in Staro Oryahovo.