Benkovski Isperih 1–5 Fratria: Result & Stats

Benkovski Isperih

FT

1 – 5

Fratria

5/11/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Benkovski Isperih36%

×Draw23%

Fratria41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benkovski IsperihExpected goals in this matchFratria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.73

Benkovski Isperih

1.59

Fratria

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

2.27

creates per match

2.23

1.23

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih

2.27

Fratria

2.23

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih

1.23

Fratria

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Fratria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw

59%

Benkovski Isperih or Fratria

77%

Draw or Fratria

64%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+

17%

Fratria wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals

80%

Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals

47%

Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals

21%

Fratria 1+ goals

82%

Fratria 2+ goals

52%

Fratria 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)

46%

Fratria (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fratria attack 2.23 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more

36%

level

23%

Fratria scores more

41%

Fratria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff