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Franke vs Täby — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Franke
Franke
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Täby
Täby
6/27/2025Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 14Råby IP 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Franke31%
×Draw22%
Täby46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Franke
1.55
Täby
1.92

Täby creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

creates per match

Franke
1.72
Täby
2.15

allows per match

Franke
1.70
Täby
1.39

finishing

Franke+0.00on par
Täby+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Franke ↓

Täby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Franke or draw
54%
Franke or Täby
78%
Draw or Täby
69%

Winning margin

Franke wins by 2+
15%
Täby wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Franke 1+ goals
79%
Franke 2+ goals
46%
Franke 3+ goals
20%
Täby 1+ goals
85%
Täby 2+ goals
57%
Täby 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Franke (draw refunded)
40%
Täby (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Franke at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.70 · 46 matches

Täby away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Franke attack 1.72 + Täby defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Täby attack 2.15 + Franke defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Franke scores more
31%
level
22%
Täby scores more
46%

Täby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Franke 1 – 2 Täby

Täby beat Franke 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 27, 2025.

The match was played at Råby IP 3 in Västerås.