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Franke vs Täby — Svenska Cupen 2019

Franke
Franke
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Täby
Täby
5/29/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundRåby IP 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Franke5%
×Draw13%
Täby82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Franke
0.50
Täby
2.63

Täby creates 426% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Franke
0.00
Täby
2.25

allows per match

Franke
3.00
Täby
1.00

finishing

Franke+0.00on par
Täby+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Franke ↓

Täby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–112%
0–215%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Franke or draw
18%
Franke or Täby
87%
Draw or Täby
95%

Winning margin

Franke wins by 2+
1%
Täby wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Franke 1+ goals
39%
Franke 2+ goals
9%
Franke 3+ goals
1%
Täby 1+ goals
93%
Täby 2+ goals
73%
Täby 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Franke (draw refunded)
6%
Täby (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Franke at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Täby away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Franke attack 0.00 + Täby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Täby attack 2.25 + Franke defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Franke scores more
5%
level
13%
Täby scores more
82%

Täby at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Franke 0 – 2 Täby

Täby beat Franke 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at Råby IP 3 in Västerås.