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Francana U20 vs Bandeirante U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Francana U20
Francana U20
FT
1 – 2
Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Francana U2054%
×Draw20%
Bandeirante U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Francana U20
2.37
Bandeirante U20
1.60

Francana U20 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Francana U20
2.80
Bandeirante U20
1.00

allows per match

Francana U20
2.20
Bandeirante U20
1.94

finishing

Francana U20+0.00on par
Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Francana U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Francana U20 or draw
74%
Francana U20 or Bandeirante U20
80%
Draw or Bandeirante U20
46%

Winning margin

Francana U20 wins by 2+
34%
Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Francana U20 1+ goals
91%
Francana U20 2+ goals
68%
Francana U20 3+ goals
42%
Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
80%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
47%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Francana U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Francana U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Francana U20 attack 2.80 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.37

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Francana U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Francana U20 scores more
54%
level
20%
Bandeirante U20 scores more
26%

Francana U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Francana U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Francana U20 1–2 Bandeirante U20

Bandeirante U20 beat Francana U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho in Franca, São Paulo.