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Bandeirante U20 vs Francana U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Francana U20
Francana U20
M. Muzzi 89'
Bruno 66'
6/8/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bandeirante U2059%
×Draw19%
Francana U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandeirante U20
2.37
Francana U20
1.36

Bandeirante U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bandeirante U20
1.33
Francana U20
1.20

allows per match

Bandeirante U20
1.53
Francana U20
3.40

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par
Francana U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

Francana U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw
79%
Bandeirante U20 or Francana U20
81%
Draw or Francana U20
41%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
38%
Francana U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
91%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
68%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
42%
Francana U20 1+ goals
74%
Francana U20 2+ goals
39%
Francana U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Francana U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Francana U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + Francana U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.37

Francana U20 attack 1.20 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more
59%
level
19%
Francana U20 scores more
21%

Bandeirante U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bandeirante U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
Bruno
89'
M. Muzzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Bandeirante U20 2–0 Francana U20

Bandeirante U20 beat Francana U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: Bruno (66'), M. Muzzi (89').

The match was played at Arena Mario Lima Santos in Brodowski, São Paulo.