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Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
Preview
19:15
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
8/17/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 19
Big match
47%
Fram Reykjavik
model favours
47%23%31%

Both teams score in 92% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fram Reykjavik47%
×Draw23%
Stjarnan31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram Reykjavik
1.85
Stjarnan
1.47

Fram Reykjavik creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik
2.19
Stjarnan
1.65

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik
1.29
Stjarnan
1.52

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par
Stjarnan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

Stjarnan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw
69%
Fram Reykjavik or Stjarnan
77%
Draw or Stjarnan
53%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
25%
Stjarnan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
84%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
55%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
28%
Stjarnan 1+ goals
77%
Stjarnan 2+ goals
43%
Stjarnan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
60%
Stjarnan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Stjarnan away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + Stjarnan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stjarnan attack 1.65 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more
47%
level
23%
Stjarnan scores more
31%

Fram Reykjavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 85% of Stjarnan’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 85% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 80% of Stjarnan’s matches
  • Stjarnan score first in only 30% of matches
  • 67% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stjarnan have scored in 8 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Reykjavik
WDWLW
Stjarnan
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fram Reykjavik face Stjarnan (Úrvalsdeild)

Úrvalsdeild returns with Fram Reykjavik hosting Stjarnan. Match starts August 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.