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Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
Preview
17:00
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
8/30/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 21
Big match
58%
Fram Reykjavik
model favours
58%20%22%

Both teams score in 92% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fram Reykjavik58%
×Draw20%
KA Akureyri22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram Reykjavik
2.27
KA Akureyri
1.34

Fram Reykjavik creates 69% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik
2.19
KA Akureyri
1.40

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik
1.29
KA Akureyri
2.35

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par
KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

KA Akureyri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw
78%
Fram Reykjavik or KA Akureyri
80%
Draw or KA Akureyri
42%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
36%
KA Akureyri wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
90%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
66%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
39%
KA Akureyri 1+ goals
74%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
39%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
72%
KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + KA Akureyri defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.27

KA Akureyri attack 1.40 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more
58%
level
20%
KA Akureyri scores more
22%

Fram Reykjavik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Reykjavik
WDWLW
Akureyri
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri — Match Preview

Fram Reykjavik face KA Akureyri on August 30, 2026 in this Úrvalsdeild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.