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Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
Preview
19:15
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
7/26/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 16
Big match
54%
Fram Reykjavik
model favours
54%20%25%

Both teams score in 92% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fram Reykjavik54%
×Draw20%
FH hafnarfjordur25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram Reykjavik
2.24
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48

Fram Reykjavik creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik
2.19
FH hafnarfjordur
1.68

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik
1.29
FH hafnarfjordur
2.29

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par
FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw
75%
Fram Reykjavik or FH hafnarfjordur
80%
Draw or FH hafnarfjordur
46%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
33%
FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
89%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
65%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
38%
FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals
77%
FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals
43%
FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
68%
FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.68 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more
54%
level
20%
FH hafnarfjordur scores more
25%

Fram Reykjavik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FH hafnarfjordur are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Fram Reykjavik have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 67% of Fram Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 62% over 2.5)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Reykjavik
WDWLW
hafnarfjordur
WDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fram Reykjavik host FH hafnarfjordur

July 26, 2026: Fram Reykjavik take on FH hafnarfjordur in Úrvalsdeild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.