Fram Reykjavik 2–0 FH hafnarfjordur: Result & Stats

Fram Reykjavik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FH hafnarfjordur

S. Runarsson 78'

V. Dimitrijevic 6'

6/15/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 11Lambhagavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fram Reykjavik54%

×Draw20%

FH hafnarfjordur25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fram ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.48

Fram Reykjavik

2.24

FH hafnarfjordur

1.48

Fram Reykjavik creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

2.19

creates per match

1.68

1.29

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik

2.19

FH hafnarfjordur

1.68

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik

1.29

FH hafnarfjordur

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw

75%

Fram Reykjavik or FH hafnarfjordur

80%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

46%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

33%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

89%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

65%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

38%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

77%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

43%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

68%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.68 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more

54%

level

20%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

25%

Fram Reykjavik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

V. Dimitrijevic↳ R. Hauksson

42'

H. Asgrimsson

57'

D. Fjeldsted

61'

S. Hallsson

61'

E. Ingvarsson← B. Helgason

61'

U. Bjornsson← D. Fjeldsted

66'

Fred Saraiva← V. Dimitrijevic

72'

E. Ingvarsson

76'

A. Faqa

76'

K. McLagan

78'

G. Magnusson← H. Asgrimsson

78'

B. Brynjolfsson← T. Robertsson

78'

I. Olafsson← A. Faqa

78'

A. Gudmundsson← B. Jonsson

78'

86'

88'

90+2'

90+2'

J. Bystrom← R. Hauksson

90+2'

O. Hlynsson← I. Garcia

Fram

FH

13

Rosenorn

2

▼

Jonsson

21

Bodvarsso

37

▼

Helgason

4

▼

Faqa

6

Gunnarsso

17

▼

Fjeldsted

10

Sverrisso

9

Hallsson

23

▼

7

22

19

5

3

8

▼

Asgrimsso

26

⚽

Runarsson

23

Aegisson

12

Tibbling

9

A

▼

Hauksson

16

▼

Garcia

29

⚽

▼

Dimitrije

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

66'▲Fred Saraiva←▼V. Dimitrijevic

78'▲G. Magnusson←▼H. Asgrimsson

90+2'▲J. Bystrom←▼R. Hauksson

90+2'▲O. Hlynsson←▼I. Garcia

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

1Arnaldarson4Adalsteinsson7Magnusson10Saraiva15Bystrom21Hlynsson30Konradsson32Andrason33Pauzuolis

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

61'▲E. Ingvarsson←▼B. Helgason

61'▲U. Bjornsson←▼D. Fjeldsted

78'▲B. Brynjolfsson←▼T. Robertsson

78'▲I. Olafsson←▼A. Faqa

78'▲A. Gudmundsson←▼B. Jonsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

16Brynjolfsson18Ingvarsson22Olafsson24Arnarsson27Arnarsson33Bjornsson35Purisevic38Gudmundsson34Steinbjornsson

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur

Fram Reykjavik beat FH hafnarfjordur 2-0 in Úrvalsdeild on June 15, 2025.

Goals: V. Dimitrijevic (6'), S. Runarsson (78').

The match was played at Lambhagavöllurinn in Reykjavík.

Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur