FH hafnarfjordur 3–4 Fram Reykjavik: Result & Stats

FH hafnarfjordur

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Fram Reykjavik

S. Hallsson 76' (pen), 59', 38'

K. Konradsson 90'

M. Aegisson 83'

J. Bystrom 65'

K. Chopart 40'

10/25/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Championship Round - 5Kaplakriki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FH hafnarfjordur49%

×Draw22%

Fram Reykjavik29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FH hafnarfjordurExpected goals in this matchFram Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.50

FH hafnarfjordur

1.98

Fram Reykjavik

1.50

FH hafnarfjordur creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.88

creates per match

1.59

1.42

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

FH hafnarfjordur

1.88

Fram Reykjavik

1.59

allows per match

FH hafnarfjordur

1.42

Fram Reykjavik

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FH hafnarfjordur ↓

Fram Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FH hafnarfjordur or draw

71%

FH hafnarfjordur or Fram Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Fram Reykjavik

51%

Winning margin

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

28%

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

86%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

59%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

31%

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

78%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

44%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

62%

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FH hafnarfjordur at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.88 + Fram Reykjavik defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fram Reykjavik attack 1.59 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

49%

level

22%

Fram Reykjavik scores more

29%

FH hafnarfjordur at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FH hafnarfjordur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

S. Hallsson

40'

K. Chopart↳ H. Asgrimsson

57'

B. Brynjolfsson← B. Sverrisson

59'

S. Hallsson

65'

J. Bystrom↳ Fred Saraiva

66'

R. Hauksson← S. Runarsson

66'

M. Thordarson← J. Bystrom

76'

S. HallssonPenalty

82'

B. Bjarkason← D. Fjeldsted

82'

E. Ingvarsson← B. Helgason

82'

J. Arnarsson← B. Jonsson

82'

K. Konradsson← F. Sigurdsson

83'

G. Gunnarsson← T. Robertsson

83'

M. Aegisson

86'

M. Thordarson

88'

H. Andrason← H. Asgrimsson

88'

K. Pauzuolis← M. Aegisson

90'

K. Konradsson

FH

Fram

22

Sigurdsso

23

⚽

▼

Aegisson

19

⚽

Chopart

26

▼

Runarsson

3

Thorbjorn

8

A

▼

Asgrimsso

16

Garcia

25

▼

Sigurdsso

12

Tibbling

10

A

Saraiva

15

⚽

▼

Bystrom

13

Rosenorn

2

▼

22

4

21

37

▼

Helgason

23

▼

Robertsso

9

⚽3

Hallsson

10

▼

Sverrisso

7

Halldorss

17

▼

Fjeldsted

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

57'▲B. Brynjolfsson←▼B. Sverrisson

82'▲B. Bjarkason←▼D. Fjeldsted

82'▲E. Ingvarsson←▼B. Helgason

82'▲J. Arnarsson←▼B. Jonsson

83'▲G. Gunnarsson←▼T. Robertsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

6Gunnarsson11Bjarkason16Brynjolfsson18Ingvarsson24Arnarsson27Arnarsson34Steinbjornsson35Purisevic38Gudmundsson

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

66'▲R. Hauksson←▼S. Runarsson

66'▲M. Thordarson←▼J. Bystrom

82'▲K. Konradsson←▼F. Sigurdsson

88'▲H. Andrason←▼H. Asgrimsson

88'▲K. Pauzuolis←▼M. Aegisson

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

1Arnaldarson6Geirsson9Hauksson11Thordarson29Dimitrijevic30Konradsson32Andrason33Pauzuolis71Elisson