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Fraga vs Épila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fraga
Fraga
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Épila
Épila
9/10/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 1Estadio de La Estacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fraga39%
×Draw29%
Épila32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraga
1.18
Épila
1.05

Fraga creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 99 away

creates per match

Fraga
1.30
Épila
1.16

allows per match

Fraga
0.95
Épila
1.05

finishing

Fraga+0.00on par
Épila+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraga ↓

Épila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fraga or draw
68%
Fraga or Épila
71%
Draw or Épila
61%

Winning margin

Fraga wins by 2+
16%
Épila wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fraga 1+ goals
69%
Fraga 2+ goals
33%
Fraga 3+ goals
12%
Épila 1+ goals
65%
Épila 2+ goals
28%
Épila 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fraga (draw refunded)
55%
Épila (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraga at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Épila away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraga attack 1.30 + Épila defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Épila attack 1.16 + Fraga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fraga scores more
39%
level
29%
Épila scores more
32%

Fraga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fraga vs Épila

Fraga and Épila drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de La Estacada in Fraga.