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Épila vs Fraga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Épila
Épila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fraga
Fraga
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Épila46%
×Draw28%
Fraga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Épila
1.34
Fraga
0.92

Épila creates 46% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 65 away

creates per match

Épila
1.20
Fraga
1.06

allows per match

Épila
0.77
Fraga
1.49

finishing

Épila+0.00on par
Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Fraga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Épila or draw
74%
Épila or Fraga
72%
Draw or Fraga
54%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+
22%
Fraga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals
74%
Épila 2+ goals
39%
Épila 3+ goals
15%
Fraga 1+ goals
60%
Fraga 2+ goals
23%
Fraga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)
64%
Fraga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fraga attack 1.06 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Épila scores more
46%
level
28%
Fraga scores more
26%

Épila at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Épila 1 – 1 Fraga

Épila and Fraga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Huerta in Épila.