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Frøya vs Bjarg — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Frøya
Frøya
FT
1 – 1
Bjarg
Bjarg
4/10/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 1Frøya idrettspark kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frøya36%
×Draw25%
Bjarg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frøya
1.41
Bjarg
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Frøya
1.23
Bjarg
1.81

allows per match

Frøya
1.15
Bjarg
1.58

finishing

Frøya+0.00on par
Bjarg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frøya ↓

Bjarg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Frøya or draw
61%
Frøya or Bjarg
75%
Draw or Bjarg
64%

Winning margin

Frøya wins by 2+
17%
Bjarg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Frøya 1+ goals
76%
Frøya 2+ goals
41%
Frøya 3+ goals
17%
Bjarg 1+ goals
77%
Bjarg 2+ goals
43%
Bjarg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Frøya (draw refunded)
48%
Bjarg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frøya at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Bjarg away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frøya attack 1.23 + Bjarg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bjarg attack 1.81 + Frøya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Frøya scores more
36%
level
25%
Bjarg scores more
39%

Bjarg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Frøya 1–1 Bjarg

Frøya and Bjarg drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Frøya idrettspark kunstgress in Hamarvik.