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Bjarg vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Bjarg
Bjarg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Frøya
Frøya
C. Dahl 51', 45'
J. Jorgensen 30'
E. Larsson 19'
E. Voster 74'
9/7/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20Stavollen stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bjarg70%
×Draw15%
Frøya15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjarg
3.17
Frøya
1.44

Bjarg creates 120% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bjarg
3.69
Frøya
1.65

allows per match

Bjarg
1.23
Frøya
2.65

finishing

Bjarg+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjarg ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Bjarg or draw
85%
Bjarg or Frøya
85%
Draw or Frøya
30%

Winning margin

Bjarg wins by 2+
51%
Frøya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bjarg 1+ goals
96%
Bjarg 2+ goals
82%
Bjarg 3+ goals
60%
Frøya 1+ goals
76%
Frøya 2+ goals
42%
Frøya 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bjarg (draw refunded)
83%
Frøya (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjarg at home — creates 3.69, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjarg attack 3.69 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 3.17

Frøya attack 1.65 + Bjarg defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bjarg scores more
70%
level
15%
Frøya scores more
15%

Bjarg at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
E. Larsson
30'
J. Jorgensen
45'
C. Dahl
51'
C. Dahl
74'
E. Voster

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjarg vs Frøya

Bjarg beat Frøya 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: E. Larsson (19'), J. Jorgensen (30'), C. Dahl (45', 51'), E. Voster (74').

The match was played at Stavollen stadion in Fanahammaren.