Foz Do Iguacu 2–0 Apucarana: Result & Stats

Foz Do Iguacu

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Apucarana

6/23/2024

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio do ABC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Foz Do Iguacu58%

×Draw23%

Apucarana18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foz Do IguacuExpected goals in this matchApucarana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.86

Foz Do Iguacu

1.75

Apucarana

0.86

Foz Do Iguacu creates 103% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

2.00

creates per match

0.79

0.94

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Foz Do Iguacu

2.00

Apucarana

0.79

allows per match

Foz Do Iguacu

0.94

Apucarana

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Do Iguacu ↓

Apucarana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Foz Do Iguacu or draw

82%

Foz Do Iguacu or Apucarana

77%

Draw or Apucarana

42%

Winning margin

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+

33%

Apucarana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals

83%

Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals

52%

Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals

25%

Apucarana 1+ goals

58%

Apucarana 2+ goals

21%

Apucarana 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)

76%

Apucarana (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Do Iguacu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Do Iguacu attack 2.00 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Foz Do Iguacu scores more

58%

level

23%

Apucarana scores more

18%

Foz Do Iguacu at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff