Apucarana 0–1 Foz Do Iguacu: Result & Stats

Apucarana

FT

0 – 1

Foz Do Iguacu

4/10/2022

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Apucarana46%

×Draw28%

Foz Do Iguacu26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ApucaranaExpected goals in this matchFoz Do Iguacu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.91

Apucarana

1.33

Foz Do Iguacu

0.91

Apucarana creates 46% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.11

0.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Apucarana

1.50

Foz Do Iguacu

1.11

allows per match

Apucarana

0.71

Foz Do Iguacu

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw

74%

Apucarana or Foz Do Iguacu

72%

Draw or Foz Do Iguacu

54%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+

22%

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals

74%

Apucarana 2+ goals

38%

Apucarana 3+ goals

15%

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals

60%

Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals

23%

Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)

64%

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.11 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Apucarana scores more

46%

level

28%

Foz Do Iguacu scores more

26%

Apucarana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff