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Fovu Club vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
2 – 0
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
1/25/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fovu Club40%
×Draw28%
Bafmeng United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.22
Bafmeng United
1.06

Fovu Club creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
0.91
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

Fovu Club
1.09
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
68%
Fovu Club or Bafmeng United
72%
Draw or Bafmeng United
60%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
17%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
70%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
34%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
12%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
65%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
29%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
56%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 0.91 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Fovu Club defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fovu Club scores more
40%
level
28%
Bafmeng United scores more
32%

Fovu Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Fovu Club 2–0 Bafmeng United

Fovu Club beat Bafmeng United 2-0 in Elite Two on January 25, 2025.