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Bafmeng United vs Fovu Club — Elite Two 2020

Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
4/12/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bafmeng United57%
×Draw25%
Fovu Club18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bafmeng United
1.59
Fovu Club
0.78

Bafmeng United creates 104% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bafmeng United
1.39
Fovu Club
0.70

allows per match

Bafmeng United
0.87
Fovu Club
1.80

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw
82%
Bafmeng United or Fovu Club
75%
Draw or Fovu Club
43%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+
30%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals
80%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
47%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
21%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
54%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
18%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
76%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Fovu Club defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fovu Club attack 0.70 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bafmeng United scores more
57%
level
25%
Fovu Club scores more
18%

Bafmeng United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bafmeng United vs Fovu Club

Bafmeng United beat Fovu Club 1-0 in Elite Two on April 12, 2025.