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Forward vs FBK Karlstad — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Forward
Forward
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad
5/28/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 9Trängens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Forward44%
×Draw22%
FBK Karlstad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward
1.92
FBK Karlstad
1.65

Forward creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 26 away

creates per match

Forward
2.48
FBK Karlstad
2.04

allows per match

Forward
1.25
FBK Karlstad
1.35

finishing

Forward+0.00on par
FBK Karlstad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward ↓

FBK Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Forward or draw
66%
Forward or FBK Karlstad
78%
Draw or FBK Karlstad
56%

Winning margin

Forward wins by 2+
24%
FBK Karlstad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Forward 1+ goals
85%
Forward 2+ goals
57%
Forward 3+ goals
30%
FBK Karlstad 1+ goals
81%
FBK Karlstad 2+ goals
49%
FBK Karlstad 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Forward (draw refunded)
57%
FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

FBK Karlstad away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward attack 2.48 + FBK Karlstad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

FBK Karlstad attack 2.04 + Forward defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Forward scores more
44%
level
22%
FBK Karlstad scores more
34%

Forward at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Forward will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forward vs FBK Karlstad

Forward and FBK Karlstad drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Trängens IP in Örebro.