FBK Karlstad 4–1 Forward: Result & Stats

FBK Karlstad

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Forward

10/1/2023

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 23Örsholmen IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FBK Karlstad52%

×Draw22%

Forward26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBK KarlstadExpected goals in this matchForward

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.37

FBK Karlstad

2.02

Forward

1.37

FBK Karlstad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

2.46

creates per match

1.82

0.92

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FBK Karlstad

2.46

Forward

1.82

allows per match

FBK Karlstad

0.92

Forward

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par

Forward+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

Forward →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw

74%

FBK Karlstad or Forward

78%

Draw or Forward

48%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+

31%

Forward wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals

87%

FBK Karlstad 2+ goals

60%

FBK Karlstad 3+ goals

33%

Forward 1+ goals

75%

Forward 2+ goals

40%

Forward 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)

67%

Forward (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Forward away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 2.46 + Forward defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.02

Forward attack 1.82 + FBK Karlstad defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more

52%

level

22%

Forward scores more

26%

FBK Karlstad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FBK Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff